The atmosphere is not that it is tense, hot or cloudy air, it is one step beyond this, since the problems between the trio of countries that dominate the semiconductors (with permission of South Korea and Japan) is possibly at a point of no return and critical at the same time. China warned the US that there would be retaliation if the sanctions by the Americans became effective, well, we already saw the last one with chips for AI and HPC servers, Deep Learning and others. What would happen if China make one invasion a Taiwan with TSMC in the middle? Complicated data to manage…
When the war in Russia and Ukraine was about to blow up, the United States of America was one of the first countries to remove its people from the territory dominated by Vladimir Putin. Well, the US is considering right now do the same with yours in TaiwanIs there really going to be a war between Xi Jinping and Biden?
China could attack, but what about TSMC?
According to reports and the words of Gina Raimondo, the US government has on the table the more than likely possibility that China will take Taiwan by surprise. The problem with this is that the island would become part of Xi Jinping’s country and with it TSMC, which would have a global impact on the supply of chips.
To give us an idea of that impact, TSMC has already more than half of the global chip share and therefore the technological future of everyone is at stake, not just the US. Chen Ming Tongdirector general of Taiwan’s National Security Office commented that China should be careful, since TSMC is exclusively dependent on foreEsports Extrassupplies and companies to function, so an invasion in his opinion makes no sense, let alone destroying TSMC:
“If you understand the TSMC ecosystem, the comments are unrealistic from China’s side. TSMC needs to integrate global elements before producing high-end chips. Without components or equipment like ASML scanners, without key components, there is no way that TSMC can continue production.”
If China launched an invasion of Taiwan, TSMC would have to stop production and that means a deep and immediate recession for the US, which would mean all together an impact on the world economy of more than 1 trillion dollars directly.
China, the invasion in Taiwan and the US response with TSMC
If this possibility became a reality, the United States is very clear: the TSMC facilities would be immediately destroyed by an attack. TSMC would not fall into Chinese hands under any circumstances. Faced with this possibility of invasion and destruction, Cheng was also clear:
“Those wargame plans are just scenarios […] If they understood the TSMC ecosystem better, they would realize that it is not as simple as they think. That’s why Intel can’t catch up with TSMC for now. Even if China gets hold of the goose that lays the golden eggs of chips, it won’t be able to lay golden eggs.”
The problem is that the US is dangerously encircling the Chinese dragon and when you threaten an enemy like this you are giving it very little room for maneuver to move, ergo at some point it will try to attack you or directly go to finish you off. China has always been open to dialogue and has responded with the same game as the US, but this time the board is different and is in the making chip supply and present and future technology, synonymous with world domination. Chips are the new oil and everyone involved knows it, let’s hope the blood doesn’t reach the river.