the price of SSDs will fall further

In the last two weeks, reports on the health status of different markets have been appearing progressively. The reality is that from the current economic state to the impact suffered by companies and supply chains, as a general rule, there are a few months difference. For this reason, these “untimely” reports, where the last one points directly to the NAND Flash memory market, and if we already knew that the situation was complicated… Be careful, because the first conclusions were not as bad as those of now and will that he price of memory of the SSD collapse.

The penultimate report of TrendForce It was already quite dramatic with this industry to the delight of all users, but they have had to rectify it and update it in the process, because the data of the new inventories and the logistical and financial situation of the companies is causing the market to literally collapse little by little. little bit.

That of NAND Flash memory is the worst scenario for manufacturers: the price of SSDs goes down

Let us remember that not long ago we were talking about a fall in the prices of SSDs and in general, of everything that carries a NAND Flash, among the 8% to 13%but these figures have been really very low, since now the rectification points to higher levels.

Specifically, TrendForce speaks of an impressive drop in prices for 13% to 18% quarter-on-quarter, since the general situation is going from bad to worse. But let’s see clearer data and more convincing arguments on which they rely to give such catastrophic numbers.

The first argument given is the restructuring of supply based on poorer-than-expected demand. And it is that a market that was rising like foam and that has now fallen into disgrace, such as that of Chromebook and NB, now facing a problem with the teams already created and in the stores, since they are not being sold. Its objective was to be able to be used for education or teleworking at home, which now does not work.

Therefore, companies are having to move production to less specific inventory lines, which now do not need as many chips because their demand is also going down. Therefore, this affects the purchase orders of the following quarter and makes the market now saturated.

From 176 layers TLC to QLC, the market moved late

Another factor is the fact of going from TLC to QLC in 176 layers, the most used today for SSDs and mobiles. To this we must add the scenario that exists in servers, where SSDs gain ground over HDDs, but have less demand, the sector of eMMC which is in the doldrums due to what has been said about Chromebooks and in SFU for mobiles we have an inventory adjustment that neither Apple with its new iPhone they will get rid

Regarding the demand for wafers, the main factor to understand how the sector and its prices will fluctuate, the manufacturers they are buying in small quantities, and that they are being sold at greatly reduced prices to stimulate such demand. But not for those.

To this we must add the new FAB of YMTC and that SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are taking their foot off the accelerator slower than previously thought, because they seem to think that the Christmas season will be more hectic, but the macroeconomic data point precisely on the contrary.

In summary, the price of NAND Flash will fall between a 13% and 18% in this quarter and that will make SSDs and mobiles, among many other devices, have to adjust their price downwards. When will this adjustment occur for us to see the results? They are usually slow, because both manufacturers and stores have to sell the stock first and when there are new shipments, these price adjustments are expected, so it will not be immediate.